"I really feel that one successful launch will establish us as being fairly reliable," Musk said.
Despite a track record of zero, SpaceX, which is based in El Segundo, Calif., has amassed an impressive list of clients, including the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the U.S. Air Force, the government of Malaysia, Swedish Space Corp., and Bigelow Aerospace, which is developing an inflatable space hotel.
Falcon's biggest selling point is its price. SpaceX's flat-rate fee starts about $6.7 million for the Falcon 1, about one-third the going rate. The company also is developing more powerful launchers to carry heavier payloads to orbit.
If Falcon flies, Musk could vastly undercut the price long-time rocket manufacturers including Boeing Co. and Lockheed-Martin charge for their Delta and Atlas expendable boosters.
SpaceX is keeping a close eye on NASA, which is expected to begin soliciting proposals for launch services next month. The space agency needs to find a way to send crew and cargo to the space station after the shuttle fleet is retired in 2010.
The agency has nearly $200 million earmarked in its 2006 budget for station crew and cargo transport for the year ending Sept. 30. While most of those funds are expected to be spent on Russian Soyuz launches, NASA is looking to use U.S. commercial providers when they become available.
Musk, who made most of his fortune by selling PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion, said his motivation for delving into the space arena is to create a true, space-faring civilization. So far, that has not happened because of the high price of getting into space, about $10,000 per pound.
"I'm not doing this to go into space myself, per se," Musk said. "It would have been very easy for me to pay to go to the International Space Station myself. I want to help other people get to space."
Musk will need another $100 million to develop his heavy-lift vehicle, the Falcon 9, which he will pitch as crew transport for NASA. He plans to look for outside investors early next year, but if none come forward, Musk said he's prepared to dig into his own pockets again.
"The extension of life to another planet is arguably one of the most important things in the whole history of the Earth," Musk said. "One species has the ability to extend life — that's us. I think it is incumbent on us to do so."